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Friday, August 10, 2007

Crash or Correction?? & STI chart



Hi everybody....I hope everyone is coping well with the subprime and credit woes on Wall Street....haha at least I am...if you take a look at the front page of fundsupermart, the top performing funds are all bond funds....if you are tinking of switching to bond funds, personally I think it's too late..US treasury yields are at their highest in 18 months and why should you buy at the peak?

On e other hand, equities seem cheap now...esp South East Asia Equities....basically it's a good time to buy in countries like Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Malaysia or SEA as a whole....Even Europe looks cheap....Just remember, buy within ur own limits....don't contra or buy with $ that you cant part with...that's what investing is all about....

Many ppl have asked me for help on what and when to buy and honestly there is no best time to buy or sell because no one knows the top and bottom of a trend....you can only position yourself to have better odds...

Look at the chart above and it's not hard to see that the STI has retraced abt 10% from the top of >3600 pts and support is forming at 3300 pts though it was briefly breached today...The way STI came back from down 120 points to close at abt down 53 points is a good sign...meaning buyers were back and there was quite alot of short covering....

The blue chip and banks actually look cheap now....it may not be cheapest but it's time to slowly buy the Singapore UT or ETFs....The top 3 banks in SG have strong earnings and if not for the subprime & BNP problems, i tink STI would have hit back to 3450 level today with strong growth forecast and bullish comments made by our leaders over NDP...The subprime problems do not really affect SG that severely because the exposure by the banks are not that great and I think they can easily earn back their $ from other areas....

Overall advice....buy and buy and buy more equities now....slowly and steadily and quietly....and i guess you will be just in time for a nice Xmas gift =) .... now is really the Great Singapore Sale for STI......

For more advanced players, you might wan to cover ur Long positions with some STI puts on the way STI recovers so as to hedge your exposure...

Good luck!